Long-term-hold (buy & operate) return model for a DC fast-charging site · a first-principles buy-and-operate return model · Modules 0–9 + integrated utilization engine
A reusable engine for any DC-fast-charging site — upload a site flyer or a utility tariff schedule and it auto-fills, or drive it by hand from your own CAPEX, tariff, and utilization. Levered & after-tax · Conservative / Base / Optimistic · planning estimates — re-derive against metered & quoted data. Starts blank — enter your own site or drop a document.
The full year-by-year P&L (Yr 0…N) for the selected scenario, with paste-ready export and a 3-scenario KPI block. Download .xlsx gives a fully-formatted Excel workbook — navy header, banded totals, accounting number formats, right-aligned figures. Copy puts tab-separated text on your clipboard for a quick paste; .csv is the raw unstyled data. Switch the scenario in the header above to change the columns. Depreciation is 100% bonus in Yr 1 (ex-land, net of grants); hardware refreshes every useful-life (Module 1–2) years; at a 0% entity rate the Yr-1 loss carries forward as an NOL, and land is never depreciated.
Rows scale stabilized energy throughput; columns scale the retail price to driver. Center cell (1.00 × 1.00) is the selected scenario's base. Green = higher IRR.
One knob — Scaling intensity (Module 3) — multiplies how hard the three levers scale over the hold: customer retail-price escalation, power-cost escalation, and EV-parc demand growth. 0% = everything flat-real (no growth); 100% = your base assumptions; 200% = twice as hard. The live model uses the value set in Module 3; this table sweeps it. Retail stays under its price ceiling (Module 4) and demand under its physical ceiling (Module 3). Note: because power cost is one of the levers, higher intensity lifts costs as well as revenue — so the effect can be non-monotonic, since faster power-cost escalation against capped prices/volume eventually eats margin. That tension is the point of the stress test.
You're holding, not selling — this residual capitalizes a stabilized NOI to close the NPV and value the asset you keep. Transaction costs and §1245 depreciation recapture apply only in a sale scenario (toggle in Module 9).
The engine prices energy under all three rate structures and bills whichever is cheapest. A demand-only structure bills on kW (nameplate × coincidence), so it's essentially fixed year-to-year and independent of energy sold — at high-power, low-utilization sites it often wins. The $/kWh figure is derived (cost ÷ energy) and falls as utilization rises. Swap in your own utility's rate table via the tariff constants in Module 5.
Utilization is an output here, derived from the site drivers on the Inputs tab (sessions/day, kWh/session, ports, nameplate). Deriving it — rather than typing a stabilized number back into a model that also computes it — avoids circularity. The occupancy inputs below shape the occupancy / active-charging views only; they do not change kWh delivered or the returns. This panel shows the Base scenario.
.json) · Excel assumptions book · research doc · site-overview PDF · utility tariff schedule (rate sheet).xlsx .json .pdf .txt .csv — read locally in your browser; every match goes to a review step before anything changes.The model opens blank — enter your site or drop a doc above. Export gives an exact round-trip of all three scenarios.